Monday, June 29, 2009

Why Plug-ins Work in Oregon

Via Project Get Ready


Oregon’s Electric Vehicle Update
June 2009

Oregon’s interest in electric vehicles has a logical and natural basis.

First, our state is renowned for its quirky, innovative policy reputation; we are often willing innovators and early adopters. The move to battery electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles appeals to our pioneering spirit.

Second, we Oregonians inhabit a special place of dramatic physical beauty that reinforces our sustainability, conservation, and environmental instincts. Given the mounting evidence about global warming and the carbon contamination that comes from internal combustion engines, the quest for low- and no-emission vehicles is obvious. Introducing and evaluating EVs of various size and purpose simply makes sense.

Third, approximately half of our electricity is generated from the Columbia River and a growing share of the energy portfolio comes from renewable sources. Electric vehicles and their role in our power grid hold great promise.

Fourth, our far-sighted land use laws, integrated transportation strategies, and interest in urban design and development have had us “kicking the tires” for some time now on new approaches to sustainable mobility. So we have been organizing and formalizing and thinking about approaches that will help our businesses and citizens get ready for a new transportation model, with the move toward electric vehicles as an earlier enabler of the transition.

Getting Plug-In Ready: Work in Progress

Executive Order: The Governor’s Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure Working Group

As part of the Governor’s climate change and sustainable transportation agenda, Governor Ted Kulongoski signed Executive Order 08-24 back on September 26, 2008. The Order creates the Governor’s Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure Working Group. The group is charged with developing the policies and alternative fuel infrastructure for Oregon to attract car manufacturers seeking to bring the next generation of electric and alternative fuel vehicles to market in North America.

Formalizing agreements with electric vehicle manufacturers

During the last year, Oregon has entered agreements with Toyota, Nissan, and Mitsubishi to be a testing ground for their new plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. Discussions continue with other manufacturers as well. But that isn’t the whole story. Oregon is also home to dozens of local companies that are designing, building and providing services for the electric vehicle (EV) industry-including making cars.

Clean Cities Grant

The American Renewal and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) includes $300 million for alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicle projects. A diverse and expansive team of public and private sector organizations in Oregon has submitted a proposal for these funds, taking a significant step towards transforming Oregon’s transportation system from one almost solely dependent on petroleum to one increasingly dependent on electricity. The Oregon Department of Transportation’s (ODOT) Office of Innovative Partnerships is serving as lead agency for this project. The application has been submitted to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for funding through its Clean Cities program. Oregon’s proposal is for $15 million and will more than exceed the 50 percent match requirement. The project’s objectives are to:

  • Increase the number of various types of electric vehicles: regular hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery electric and medium-duty hybrid vehicles
  • Deploy charging stations throughout the state to support electrified vehicles and help convince average consumers that the infrastructure is there to support the use of these vehicles
  • Conduct public outreach and education as well as technician training on electric vehicles
  • Support the development of market opportunities for electric vehicles, batteries and charging stations
  • Gather data and study the use of electric vehicles and charging stations to support the development of this market across the country

Key Players

In addition to the 80 partners involved in Oregon’s Clean Cities grant request (see above), there are a large and growing number of institutional players involved in Oregon’s EV initiatives. Too numerous and dynamic to list here, key players include representatives from:

  • EV Industry (Brammo Motors, Arcimoto Motors, Shorepower, Oregon Electric Vehicle Association)
  • Utilities (Portland General Electric, Pacificorp, NW Natural Gas, Eugene Water & Electric Board)
  • Finance and Business Development (Intel Capital, Oregon Department of Economic and Community Development, Portland Development Commission)
  • Government (Multnomah County, Clackamas County, City of Portland, City of Corvallis, Office of the Governor, Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Department of Energy, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, Global Warming Commission);
  • University Sector (Portland State University, University of Oregon, Oregon State University, Oregon Institute of Technology, and Oregon Transportation Research and Education Consortium (OTREC))

EV Cluster

A business cluster is a geographic concentration of interconnected businesses, suppliers, and associated institutions in a particular field or market segment. Clusters are considered to increase the productivity with which companies can compete, nationally and globally.

Oregon has been pursuing a cluster strategy since 2005. The Oregon Business Plan is built around the cluster strategy. Some of our leading clusters are in the wood products, footwear and apparel, and renewable energy industries. The newest cluster, now forming, focuses on electric vehicles. The goal is to accelerate the growth of EV-related jobs in Oregon. While PDC is the convener, the effort is targeted statewide.

Statewide RFP for Charging Stations

ODOT has issued a first-in-the-nation solicitation for charging equipment to service electric vehicles (EVs). At the request of local entities and electric utilities throughout the state, ODOT is using its unique public/private partnership authority to establish consistent standards and uniformity in building an EV charging infrastructure for Oregon. ODOT’s Office of Innovative Partnerships (OIPP) is taking a leadership role by establishing standards for the appearance, performance and safety features of EV charging stations. The objective is to have centralized purchase agreements for EV charging equipment in place by the end of 2009 that will be available for use by other agencies, local governments, utility companies and others.

Charging locations may include public facilities such as Park-n-Rides, motor pools, campuses, and public rights of way or private property such as retail and office complexes. Resources for the EV initiative may become available through the federal economic stimulus package, which would accelerate the deployment of EV charging infrastructure. For more information or to download the request for proposal, visit
http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/HWY/OIPP/inn_ev-charging.shtml

EV charging stations

Portland General Electric (PGE) is helping lead the way on plug-in vehicle adoption. To help customers be more sustainable, PGE is working with the City of Portland to develop a network of charging stations for plug-in hybrid electric and all-electric vehicles. The move responds to customers’ concerns about climate change and volatile gas prices, and anticipates the plan of car manufacturers to roll out the new generation of plug-in hybrids by 2010. For more information, check this link.

Portland State University Project with Toyota RAV 4s

Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., is preparing to place four off-lease RAV4-EV battery-electric vehicles (BEV) in a new program in Portland, Oregon designed to assist in the development of clustered electric-charging infrastructure for the arrival of future zero- and low-emission vehicles.

The vehicles will be used as station cars for shuttling people from mass-transit terminals to downtown and suburban locations. The program is being developed by Portland State University (PSU), in association with the University of California, Irvine’s (UCI) ZEV-NET (Zero Emission Vehicle-Network Enabled Transport) program.

Website by summer of 2009

We currently are designing and populating with content a website that will go into production early this summer. It will summarize who, is doing what, where and when with regard to electric vehicles in Oregon. More important, we hope to use the site to identify and support communities of interest within the commercial, nonprofit, and governmental sectors within our state, region, and beyond.

EV Conference Q4 2009

OTREC, PSU, and RMI are planning an EV conference in Portland this fall. We will target approximately 100 attendees by invitation only from the following groups:

Approximately 70 attendees from PGR cities, other cities; and, approximately 30 representatives from EV and auxiliary industries, government, media, international representatives, elected officials. The majority of participants will represent North American regions however we aim to have at least 5-10% of the audience representing international constituencies.

The objectives for the event are three-fold:

  • Meet: Get acquainted with peers, solidify relationships within and among the “anchor” cities of PGR. Provide discussion time and informal networking opportunities.
  • Learn: Status report from cities. Hear from manufacturers, industry analysts, government leaders, and media about vehicle production forecasts, pricing strategy, and generally how things look from their angle relative to EVs, NEVs, and other low- and no-emission vehicles.
  • Work: Document the question: What’s happening on the ground? Identify near term opportunities and barriers going forward (by region and, perhaps, collectively.) Consider using RMI process for developing 5-year vision and 2010 operating plan-including performance measures that begin to establish how we define and measure success by region and nationally

Education and conferences have elevated our thinking and accelerated dialogue …

Oregon has benefited from three important conferences/work sessions during the past year.

The first program, Meeting of the Minds was held last July in Portland. The event was designed to bring together leaders from multiple sectors and geographies to share ideas, learn from each other, and shape the agenda for creating more sustainable cities, with a particular focus on transportation and mobility. Those attending included over 200 policy makers, decision makers, opinion makers, rainmakers, and thought leaders from the commercial, nonprofit, and public sectors. The guests included representatives from the environmental, energy, economic development, and urban design communities with a stake in transportation, with many coming from Oregon and the Pacific Northwest, but approximately 20% were national and international participants.

Lat October, Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) held a charrette with a national focus in Portland to help realize RMI’s Smart Garage vision: bringing electrified vehicles, advanced net-zero buildings, and a smart renewable grid together in innovative ways to provide clean, cheap, secure mobility and electricity. Many participants asked: when can we have a charrette solely focused on Portland? On February 26, 2009 lessons learned during RMI’s Smart Garage charrette were combined with the pioneering plug-in experience of Portland stakeholders to begin the process of drafting a coordinated, regional Portland plug-in readiness plan. The goal of this meeting was to bring many actors in the Portland Metro plug-in space together, to share activities and discuss movement forward, touching on the following components:

  1. Identification of major stakeholders required to push a regional effort forward, next steps

for how these representatives might work together, and an estimation of resources needed to make this collaboration happen (funding and person-hours).

  1. Prioritization of major milestones in several content areas.
  2. Recognition of essential questions to be answered or feedback required from other regional stakeholders.

Partners, Players, and Working Groups

As referenced in the first section of this summary, Oregon has several main cohorts engaged in electric vehicle activities at the moment:

The Governor’s Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure Working Group that is charged with developing the policies and alternative fuel infrastructure for Oregon to attract car manufacturers seeking to bring the next generation of electric and alternative fuel vehicles to market in North America.

The 80 public and private partners involved in Oregon Clean Cities grant request.

The EV manufacturers with which Oregon is entering memoranda of understanding to become a test bed for battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The utility companies currently deploying charging stations and the state and local governmental entities that have defined and issued a statewide solicitation for charging infrastructure slated for award later this year.


Friday, June 26, 2009

Assault on Batteries!

Electric Vehicles (EV) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) are an emerging technology that could change the way the world fuels personal transportation. At least nine car companies worldwide say that by 2013 they will offer plug-in vehicles (EV or PHEV) that use electric motors as their primary means of propulsion, according to Plug-in America.org. (See the list here.)


Electric motors are available to power anything from scooters and golf carts to trains and giant earth movers. But an affordable energy storage system to power them is the problem yet to be solved. Technologically, freeway speed plug-in cars have been possible for a decade (or more); however, an affordable battery pack with a 200+ mile range is still not possible. You could argue (and I would) that most people don't need 200 miles daily; nonetheless that is want most people want.

The crux of a plug-in vehicle is the batteries.

Tesla got around this problem by starting with a high-priced car. ‘The reason we started with a $100,000 sports car is that when technology is new it tends to be expensive,’ says Elon Musk, the co-founder of PayPal who is the chief executive of and a big investor in Tesla. ‘It just takes time to optimize the right design and work up to economies of scale... Why we didn’t start with a Honda Civic is that it would be a $70,000 to $80,000 Honda Civic.”

Tesla has been given much grief over their choice to make a high-end sports car. However, given the state of the technology, the plan is brilliant. It almost seems obvious now, but it is not what the Big Three were (or are) doing. After the Volt launches, GM plans to have Voltec (volt-tech) in more expensive cars such as the Cadillac Converj and possibly the Chevy Orlando where they can develop the technology with less losses (maybe even profitably).

What will it take to make a long-range high performance battery pack? Innovation. Looking at the chart above and the second chart to the left, you can see that the energy density of batteries has continued to improve over time as breakthroughs big and small are realized. These breakthroughs correspond directly to price since fewer batteries can be used.

There have been breakthroughs in battery chemistry and advances using nano-technology. New materials such as zinc-air batteries or ultra-capacitors are under development that could be the next jump in energy storage performance.

So who is going to deliver the next great battery that makes all this possible? Japan and China both already have strong development efforts in the battery field.

A new foreign dependence?
Opponents of plug-in vehicles claim that moving to batteries just changes who we are dependent upon from Middle Eastern oil to Asian battery manufacturers or Bolivian lithium suppliers. America can become a leading technology developer and manufacturer of batteries.

The USA is not just sitting by idly; 14 American manufacturers and Argonne National Labs created the National Alliance for Advanced Transportation Battery Cell Manufacture. The founding members of the Alliance include 3M, ActaCell, All Cell Tech, Altair Nano, Dontech Global, EaglePicher, EnerSys, EnviaSystems, FMC, MicroSun Tech, Mobius Power, SiLyte, Superior Graphite, and Townsend Advanced Energy. Additional battery developers and materials suppliers are expected to join the alliance.

Dave Vieau, CEO of lithium battery leader A123 is planning a state-of-the-art 300,000-square-foot battery facility in Michigan, buoyed with $100 million in state tax credits. A123 will soon be equipped to turn out as many as 500,000 battery packs a year. A123 is partnered with Chrysler (if the latter survives) to provide batteries for the ENVI line EVs.

Through its U.S. subsidiary Compact Power, Korea's LG Chem will be building the battery packs for the Chevy Volt. With GM, LG Chem is investing $244 million in production capacity and development. Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Solutions is spending $220 million for a factory that will equip the new Ford plug-in hybrid.

The Michigan legislature passed House Bill 6611 that provides tax credits up to $335 million between 2011 and 2016 to develop high-tech electric car batteries in the state. Governor Jennifer Granholm hopes her state "will become a battery epicenter and draw a piece of an estimated $1 billion in investment from the federal government.”
Indiana is also getting into the game. Its largest city and state capital is home to EnerDel with the only US-owned lithium ion battery plant dedicated to electric vehicle batteries. EnerDel is now scrambling to keep its business plans on track as Th!nk Global struggles.

To help bolster their case, U.S. Senator Evan Bayh spoke at the famous Indianapolis Motor Speedway proposing "$1.6 billion in federal grants to accelerate growth of America’s advanced hybrid-electric and electric car industry [that] is crucial for American competitiveness in automotive and high-tech manufacturing."

Elsewhere in Indiana, Bright Automotive is designing a 100-mile-per-gallon PHEV light truck with a massive lithium-ion pack. The plan is to have the high-tech truck in production by 2012.


Peak Lithium?
Opponents of plug-in vehicles further claim that we are just trading peak-oil for peak Lithium. There are a few obvious retorts to this assertion. First, unlike oil, Lithium is not consumed. Lithium batteries can be recycled and made into new batteries. Second, batteries can be made from many other things. Zinc-air batteries are currently being used in hearing aids because they are lighter than lithium. If these can be scaled up, they are an excellent material since zinc is cheap and abundant.

What happens next?
While new battery technology continues to evolve, so have the solutions for how to utilize them. AFS Trinity has a creative solution that uses a small, off-the-shelf ultra-capacitor to buffer the battery pack. The ultracap absorbs energy from regenerative breaking and provides much of the power for initial acceleration. This increases the energy output rate and reduces wear and tear on the batteries since much of the cycling is done by the ultracap. AFS claims to be able to get near Li-ion performance with lead-acid batteries in this hybrid storage system. Coupled with Li-ion, such a system could further improve its performance or lifespan. Argonne National Laboratory seems to think there is merit to the idea.

Electrically powered transportation will continue to grow more viable. It won't be easy, battery technology is still expensive. Government incentives will be needed to move this technology into the economy of scale volumes where it can be made affordable. A goal of the Obama administration is to have one million plug-in vehicles on the road by 2015. The administration’s stimulus package allocates $2B for advanced batteries, $300M for federal and states new clean fuel vehicle fleet purchases and $7,500 tax rebate for individuals who purchase a plug-in vehicle, with even more money for the Auto Industry Re-tooling Fund.

Innovation can produce the next great car, there is a boom of new car companies including Tesla, Fisker, Aptera, Bright, Miles, Zenn and others that are bringing plug-in cars to market with the batteries that we currently have. Meanwhile, the major auto companies are not ignoring this market; whatever short comings they may have, they know how to bring a mass produced car to market. And all of them are looking to companies like A123, LG Chem, EnerSys, BYD, EEStor and others to tackle the energy storage challenge.
No one has a lock on this future; everything is up for grabs.

Electric cars around the corner
The Race to Plug-In Hybrids Is On

Monday, June 22, 2009

What is the right PHEV battery range?

GM has picked 40 miles as the battery range for the Chevy Volt. Looking at the chart above, you can see why. Nearly 80% of US drivers would be able to do all their daily driving without ever using gasoline. Then when they want to take the car on a longer trip to the beach or mountains (or Seattle or LA), the first 40 are battery powered and then the electricity for the rest of the trip comes from the on-board gasoline powered generator that makes enough electricity to keep the batteries in a charge sustaining mode. If you pull over for dinner1 and are lucky enough to find a place to plug in, you can put some juice in the batteries and then get another 10 or 15 miles of cheaper/cleaner battery powered travel before going back to the generator.


That sounds like a pretty good use-case. They have the eco & wallet friendliness of an EV for daily driving and the range of a typical car for the weekend get-aways. What is not to love? Given the infrastructure we have right now, this seems like the right car at the right time. Apparently, not everyone thinks this is the great new way to make cars.

Bloomberg reports:
A rechargeable auto with the Volt’s target range of 40 miles on electricity is "not cost effective in any scenario" a study by Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh found. Plug-in cars with smaller batteries may be a better value, according to the study, which doesn’t cite the Volt by name.

The study is an attempt to test how prices and driving habits may shape consumer choices among current hybrids and new [plug-in] models.

With lighter, cheaper batteries, a plug-in with 7 to 10 miles of electric range or a conventional hybrid may provide the best mix of price, faster charge times and efficiency, Michalek said. His study was accepted this week for publication in a future issue of the journal Energy Policy.
A 10 mile electric range vehicle might be cheaper. It would certainly be cheaper to manufacture, but the 10 year cost of ownership depends on your personal driving habits, the future cost of gas, and the government incentives for plug-in cars. Currently, that incentive goes up with the size of the battery pack. A small pack can mean little or no incentive, whereas the 16kWh pack in the Volt qualifies for the full $7500 of federal incentive.

While some think that 40 miles of electric range is too far, others think it is too short. Tesla CEO Elon Musk says that, for reasons he explains here, a 40 mile range battery pack is about half the size (and cost) of a 200 mile pack rather than one fifth as simple ratios would suggest. Regen and acceleration are more stressful on a small battery pack compared to a pure EV's large pack. And in a PHEV once the batteries are drained, they are, for the most part, just dead weight.

This is an emerging area of technology. If the answers to these complex questions were simple, we'd all be driving it by now. That is the nice thing about competition. Different car companies can make different cars; incentives can help bring new technologies to market and the marketplace will decide. Each consumer can ask themselves how much electric range is important to me and how much more, if any, am I willing to pay for that? For the winners, economies of scale bring down the price and the incentives can move to the next area that needs development.



Sidebar 1) Note that the Chevy Volt's generator will not run and charge up the batteries during that roadtrip dinner break. The generator only functions prevent the batteries from being overly discharged, not to fully charge them. Having the generator fully charge the batteries would use more gas, lower the gas mileage and pollute more than plugging in.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Best Buy Sells EVs

Best Buys stores are starting-up personal transportation sales. This will include electric scooters, Segways, and, most thrilliing of all, is electric motorcycles (or would that be engine-cycles?). The electric motorcycle is the Enertia made by Brammo.

This is an exciting move since it gives electric vehicles, at least 2 wheeled ones (for now?), a potencial worldwide dealership and service location network.

Best Buy is starting with their West Coast locations. I talked to the Brammo marketing director. They are busy training Geek Squad members now. Best Buy is not traditionally somewhere that you go when you are looking for wheels, so the stores need to hire and train a new overall-wearing branch on the Geek Squad tree. One that can handle brakes, tires, and high-voltage. The garage bays used to install car stereos and car navigation systems will now have an additional purpose.

Best Buy has 1,200 U.S. stores, and some 1,500 in Europe, with another 270 stores in China; all of which will be selling EVs if this trial goes well. Each US state has a different legal maze of requirements to navigate before vehicles (electric or otherwise) can be sold and serviced.

The Enertia uses lithium-ion phosphate batteries by Valence Technology. It has a 45-mile range and a maximum speed of 53 MPH. Great for typical commuting and riding fun. Not, however, for a cross-country easy rider run. Brammo's 2010 motorcycle is expected to have a 100 mile range and go 75 MPH.


If the two wheeled EV effort goes well for Best Buy, what is next? Will they become the distribution network that Chinese car companies BYD, Chery and others are looking for in the US and Europe.

Links

Monday, June 15, 2009

Net Metering & Feed-in Tariff


If you have solar photovoltaic (PV) panels on your home and they are making more electricity than your home is using, what happens to that energy? With modern grid-tied systems, that energy flows into the grid, to your neighbors' homes and the utility charges them for it. Yes, the utility gets paid for the electricity that you produced. So what do you get from them in return? That depends on where you live.

This same question applies if you have any sort of residential grid-tied ability to generate electricity, such as a wind turbine or a stream hydro-turbine. There are 3 options the utility has for recognizing micro-generators.
  1. Do Nothing - Any energy sent to the grid is simply donated to the utility.
  2. Net Metering - When you feed the grid, your meter runs backwards at the current rate. This may have monthly or annual limits.
  3. Feed-in Tariff - Here the utility pays you more than the going rate. This is an incentive method.
Do Nothings
There are 6 "Do Nothing" states, shown as white in the map above: Alaska, South Dakota, Kansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. In these states, you can either use batteries to prevent your surplus energy from being stolen, or you can size your system so that that it rarely exceeds your homes needs and little or no energy is given away. Neither of these are good choices since batteries add to the system cost and making sure you are not feeding the grid during peak sun, means the system would be undersized the rest of the day.

Net Metering
Some level of net metering is available in 44 US states and Washington D.C. With net metering, when you are feeding the grid, your meter is spinning backwards and lowering or eliminating your electricity bill. Generally with net metering, you cannot be paid for your power production; it can only offset other electricity use (such as nighttime). For example, if your PV system generated 30kWh during a day and you used 15 of these as they were produced and the other 15 were fed to the grid. Then that night you used 15kWh from the grid, this would be a net zero day. The rules for net metering vary from state to state. Often there are connection fees and taxes that cannot be offset.

In some states, the net calculations are done each month. In others, they are done annually. In 2007, Oregon's net metering was changed to annual reconciliation in March of each year, meaning you are allowed to carry surplus generated kWhs from the sunny months to the solar bleak winter months. When July generates about 10 times the amount of electricity as December, this is required for net metering to work well.

Feed-in Tariffs
The third option your utility has to recognize your contribution to the grid is a feed-in tariff. With a feed-in tariff, for each kWh you supply, you get paid! It is a contract for a fixed amount of time for a fixed pay rate. Feed-in tariffs are what caused the explosion of solar in Germany. Why? Because tariffs can make solar ownership profitable. With the right tariff, you can even borrow money to install the system and the tariff money can be enough to make the loan payments. After ~5 years, the loan is paid off and the next 15 years of the tariff money is profit to you. With Germany's tariff, residence installed PV systems on their homes, leased space on their neighbor's houses for panels, and farmers put elevated systems on their grazing lands so they performed double duty.

Would tariffs work in the USA? Parts of Florida and Michigan may soon find out. Gainesville Florida has implemented a tariff of 32-cents per kilowatt hour of solar energy. The statewide average cost is 12-cent per kWh for residential customers. Each kWh sent to the grid pays for nearly 3 kWh from the grid. A PV system can pay its owner $1280 per year under their program. Consumer’s Energy, a relatively small utility in Michigan, also recently proposed a feed-in tariff.

If a region is serious about making solar a part of their energy solution, a tariff is one way to do it. Solar panels distributed throughout the area generate energy right where it is being used. This reduces the demand on the grid and allows for growth without a new power plant. There is no big upfront cost for the utility like they would have if they built a new generation project.

Feed-in tariff legislation is in the works for California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. If these pass, you will hear about it here.

Link:

Thursday, June 11, 2009

EV Day Portland 2009

One week after the 4th of July, you can see cars that are liberated from the gas pump!


The Oregon Electric Vehicles Association (OEVA) is holding EV Awareness Day at Pioneer Courthouse Square in Portland Oregon on July 11th.

There will be Plug-in Hybrids, electric conversions, factory electrics, freeway speed and neighborhood electric vehicles. If you are curious about plug-in transportation, or been thinking about doing a conversion and would like to talk to several people that have done it, this is your chance.

The event runs from 9:30 AM till 4 PM.

How fast can EVs go? Are EVs eco-friendly? Do they promote coal plant pollution? What happens to the batteries? How far can an EV go? ??? All these are great questions that you can get answers to at the event.

If you know of a company or group that would be interested in attending or sponsoring this event, contact the EV Awareness Day Chair, Patrick Connor here.

Sponsorship levels are shown below, and include an annual membership to OEVA and an exhibit space.
  • Platinum $1,000
  • Gold $500
  • Silver $250
  • Bronze $100
  • Affiliate/membership $50
The Platinum Sponsor (or highest level sponsor) will be listed on signage at the event with your logo. We are also accepting donations and sponsorships, even if you don't want to exhibit at the event. If you know anyone else that may be interested, please pass this along to them.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Plug-in Transportation, Can the Grid Take It?

The boom of plug-in transportation is coming. In late 2010, GM plans to sell the Chevy Volt. Nissan, Toyota, BMW, & Mercedes will be in the plug-in game too. So what is going to happen when all these plug-in cars hit the road? Will the electricity grid collapse? Will coal plants turn the knob to 11 and choke us all to death?

You can rest assured that the grid will not collapse. Well, at least not due to plug-in cars.

The grid expands as needed. After WWII when air conditioners grew in popularity, the grid did not collapse. In the '90s when computers erupted across the country, the grid held up. In this decade, big screen TVs filled living rooms and home theaters across the country without resulting in massive outages.

The big switch to Digital Television in 2009 is projected to use 250,000 DTV converters; each using 5W when idle. 5 Watts is not much but when you have 250,000 of them they add up to over 1 megawatt of constant load added to the grid. That is over 10 thousand megawatt hours annually: a new power plant in itself.

You can see in the chart on the left that utilities are planning for the future with projections of electricity needs as far out as the year 2050.

In 2020, plug-in cars a projected to be less than one 30th of the grid's overall load. And in 2050, plug-in vehicles are projected to be only about 2,000 of the 46,000 Megawatts. Even in 2050, plug-in vehicles are not the major grid load that EV-haters paint them to be.

If all these plug-in cars are coming out in 2010, how could the energy demand be so small in 2020?

The Toyota Prius was first sold in the US in 2001. In 2007, hybrids only accounted for 4.8% of the vehicles on US roadways. J.D. Power predicts that in 2015, hybrid cars will be up to just 7% of the US fleet.

Even with incentives, plug-in hybrids will likely have a higher initial sticker price than their non-plug-in counter parts. Meaning the adoption rate for plug-ins could be even slower than it was for no-plug-hybrids.

One question down: Will plug-ins cause the electricity grid to collapse? Answer: No, plug-in growth will be gradual and the grid will be undergoing planned supply growth.

On to the next question: Will coal plants turn the knob to 11 and choke us all to death? David R. Baker, SF Chronicle Staff Writer, seems convinced "[electric vehicles] will increase the demand for electricity, much of which will probably come from new coal-fired power plants".

Studies have shown that by smart charging, the existing United States electricity grid can support 160 million electric vehicles without building a single new power plant!

It's true that electrified transportation would add to the demand for electric power, but the impact would be mitigated if the cars were recharged at home at night. Unlike a DTV converter that runs 24x7, plug-in cars can place their demand on the grid at off peak times. A 2006 U.S. Department of Energy study found that if all the cars and light trucks in the nation switched from oil-based fuels to electricity, the available, overnight generating capacity of our current grid could recharge 84% of the current US fleet.

Dr. Michael Kinter-Meyer, a scientist at Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory in Richland, Washington, said the lab's research suggests that between 43% and 73% of all cars and light trucks in the nation today could be replaced by plug-in vehicles without adding new power plants or transmission lines, provided much of the recharging took place at night during low electric demand periods.

Why is there surplus energy at night? The electrical grid must be built to handle the worst case load. Think about a parking lot at a mall. The lot has to be big enough for the blitz of shoppers on the day after Thanksgiving, or you are turning customers away. This means that most of the rest of the year, large parts of the parking lot are empty. Similarly, the grid capacity has to handle the peak loads of the day when homes and businesses are active and then because a power plant cannot simply be shut off, they have surplus energy at night. To contrast the "peak" demand time, a period of low demand is referred to as a "valley".

Further increasing the nighttime supply of electricity is the proliferation of wind turbine farms. The winds are often stronger at night. Plug-in cars may be just what is needed to soak up this nighttime surplus of energy. Adding demand to off peak times is called "valley filling" and is shown in red in the figure to the left. This is one part of leveling the demand load and utilities welcome it.

It will take encouragement to make people utilize off peak power. There are several ideas that utilities could use to provide this encouragement listed in the "tools" section below. These include billing for plug-in vehicle electricity separately and exaggerating the on-peak vs off-peak costs compared to regular home electrons. Or even have a midnight to 2AM "charge at no charge" period.

In addition, the existing nighttime electricity can be stored in plug-in vehicles and retrieved during peak-demand hours through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, helping to meet daytime peak needs. This is referred to as "peak shaving" (shown in blue in the figure above) and it further levels the load making it easier for utilities to meet the needs with a more constant supply. V2G is yet unproven but could work well for fleet vehicles. The simpler method of peak shaving is to allow the utilities to turn off charging stations for short periods during peak load. The utility could do rolling 5-minute blackouts of charging stations. This allows them to reduce the load without any significant impact to charging service and is simpler to implement than V2G. This is one of the features that Better Place offers electrical utilities with their charging network.

That answers the final question: Will plug-ins cause coal plants turn the knob to 11 and choke us all to death? Answer: No, the existing grid has more than enough capacity to charge at least 40% of the existing US fleet with smart incentives to encourage off-peak charging. Again, the adoption of plug-in cars will be gradual and it will be a long time before 40% (or even 10%) of the US fleet is plug-in. During that time we can shift to cleaner sustainable power options that cause less environmental harm than fossil fuels.

Oregon is one of several states with initiatives to increase the percentage of electricity that comes from renewable sources. This means that as the power grid is cleaned up, plug-in cars get greener. Once you are plugging in a car and using it for your daily transportation, where that electricity comes from suddenly could matter a little more to you. At one point in time, over half of electric transportation advocacy group Plug-in America's board of directors had solar panels on their homes. My plug-in truck was the tipping point for us to install solar PV panels on our house. If pollution or CO2 is a concern for you, there are options. You can buy renewable power from your utility for only pennies extra per kWh, or you can install your own renewable micro-generator such as PV or a residential wind turbine.

Plug-in transportation does not "just move the pollution from the tailpipe to the smokestack". Even on today's grid, plug-in transportation is about 3X cleaner than gasoline fueled driving. That is why plug-in transportation is endorsed by the WWF, the American Lung Association, and the Sierra Club. Plug-in transportation is an important part of a cleaner future.


Links
California utility prepares for surge in plug-in electric carsMotor Authority: Expert says electric grid ready for plug-in hybridsUser-controlled electricity saved money; stress on power grid

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

May 2009 PV & EV Report

Flowers in Rain Urn (barrel)
May of this year has had awesome solar performance, better than May of last year and even better than June and August of 2008. Last year May had record rainfall and poor solar power performance due to a dreaded upper level low.

This year, on the 14th, we hit a 3.7kW peak power level. This is the highest output that we have had; bigger than the 3.5kW days that we had in June and July last summer. It was a little cloudy that day. So how could this be better than a clear day? In addition to the direct sunlight hitting the panels, we were likely getting reflection and/or refraction from the surrounding clouds.

At first, I wondered if this new peak power was due to the new inverter. Perhaps it was more efficient and we were going to be getting consistently higher numbers. Then the values returned to be inline with prior results from the old inverter.

On the 17th, we had another brief electric outage. This time it did not break our inverter (see last month).

PV Energy Results for May 2009 = 623kWh

These 600+ kWh sailed us across the 5 megawatt-hour milestone with the month ending at 5280kWh.

Our best day in May was the 24th when the system generated 25kWh.

As for EV driving, I logged 395 miles in my EV, using ~275kWh. The graph below shows that the PV system has now produced more energy this year than the EV has used. The yellow line (net energy) is now back above zero for the year. Drivin' on Sunshine!